KEBBI 2023 POLITICAL PERMUTATION- Part 2

*KEBBI* *2023* *POLITICAL* *PERMUTATION* : X-RAYS OF MALLAMAWA, CIROMA, KAURA, FAGACI, SARDAUNA , WAMBAI, BUHARI BELLO & CHIKA MALAMI.

Part 2

 Special Edition 

 *ANALYSIS* *OF*  *EIGHT* *GOVERNORSHIP* *ASPIRANTS* 

    By AHMAD UMAR (KAMBA)

My article on part 1 on the above debate gone beyond my imagination, within short time, I received more than 200 texts via GSM, Email and WhatsApp, and I also receive more than 10 phone calls; resounding majority in support, tiny minority against the proposition and appreciable number sat on the fence; neither supporting nor against.

The article was so punchy to the extent of forcing out the SSA Social media to Gov. Atiku Bagudu, Zaidu Bala to call a press conference and denounce any truce between Governor Bagudu and any governorship aspirant; Malami inclusive. 

Zaidu Bala Kofasabuwa or Kofatsofuwa whatever Kofa he hails from, I don't care; all I believe, the guy  is just economical with true. Where were Zaidu when the Garrison Commander of Governor Bagudu's camp, P.A Faruku Enabo donated 100 units of motorcycles to Minister Malami's camp and pleadge more reinforcement. I don't know who told Malam Zaidu that such sensitive pact must be made public or heard from the horse mouth before it can be confirmed.

In a nutshell; all the texts, mails, chats and calls I received, only one from Yakubu Musa Argungu was challenging. He said and I quote;

 " Malam Amadu, if truely you are a prefesssional journalist as you claimed to be, I challenge you to have a glimpse into other aspirants you called 'mini-camps' objectively analyse their strength, weekness if any and then prove how MInister Malami's chance is more brighter..."

I found this challenge worthy of responding, hence my decision to suspend ZONING DEBATE as I earlier intend to discuss in this edition, I now shift it to the next edition, InshaAllahu.

*I NOW  ANSWER* *THE* *CHALLENGE* 

International and national politics can  be analysed scientifically and accurately predicted, let alone local politics of Kebbi State.

My course lecturer in POLITICAL COMMUNICATION ( MAC 422) Professor Umar A. Pate (now Vice Chancellor, Federal University, Gombe State)  taught me four (4) parameters to use and arrived at the accurate possibility for an aspirant to win  election:

 *1-POLITICAL* *BASE/STRUCTURE* i.e control of party structure & stakeholders, foot soldiers in nooks and crannies of your constituency. 

2- *RESOURCE* i.e financial ability to execute your campaign engineering. 

3. *REFERENCE* *POINT* i.e your contribution to the progress of people you want to lead; what have you done or achieved in the past?.

 *4-EXPOSURE* i.e ability to express yourself, experience and education background etc. According to Prof. POLITICAL BASE (PB) carry 70%, meaning once you're lacking in PB you are in trouble.

Let me now analyse these 8 aspirants base on the above parameters. In the course of these analysis I will start from bottom to top and I also add one yardstick; CHANCES IN 2023:

1- *SEN* . *DR* . *YAHAYA* *A* . *ARGUNGU* (Mallamawan Kebbi).

i- EXPOSURE: As PhD holder, former versity lecturer, former Federal perm.sec and currently majority leader in the red chamber(Senate), is 100% full of exposure to be a PRESIDENT let alone a Governor. Truth must be told.

ii- REFERENCE POINT(RP): 

1- Good family and education background 

2- As a Senator representating Kebbi North, he performed expectedly, his projects are visible.

3- Any other achievement (merging error).

TOTAL RP= 3- Points

iii- RESOURCES: He is fairly resourceful.

iv- POLITICAL BASE:   Senator Yahaya lacks solid and reliable Political Base. For reason best known to him, he decided to remain at home sleeping when the APC Excos are been elected, this resulted in shooting himself out of the control of APC structure in the state. He relied on Adamu Aleiro's structure which is now under confusion and uncertainty, secondly Aleiro's camps is known for its chameleon nature, it can change color at last minute, as it did to ABUBAKAR GARI MALAM in 2007, a situation that landed him into Politically Displaced Persons (PDPs) till date.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: Without strong political base and structure, can Mallamawan Kebbi see the light of the day in 2023?; as a reader decide🙏

 *2- ALH* . *IBRAHIM* *MUHAMMAD* *MERA* (Ciroman Kebbi)* 

i-EXPOSURE: Prince Ibrahim Mera is a venerated and noble lineage, an astute politician who impacted positively to lives of many, he is highly educated and generous.

ii- REFERENCE POINT (RP):

1- Good education and family background

2- Philanthropic activities

3-Any other achievement (margin error)

TOTAL RP: 3-Points

iii- RESOURCES: The former Deputy Comptroller General of  the lucrative Nigeria Customs Service is fully recharged; 'ba karya'.

iv- POLITICAL BASE: Beside the city of Argungu and it's annex; Augie local govt., Prince Mera popularity in other 19 LGs in the state is shaky, he is also lacking in the control of party structure. He has no collaboration with either of the super-camps;  Aleiro's, Bagudu's & Malami's camps. I don't know the kind of magic Kanta's grandson will  play to climb up and jump to Kebbi Government House without 'collabo' with any of the trio camps mentioned.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: With absent of solid political structure, Political collaboration and Political base, can Ciroman Kebbi conquer Kebbi Govt House in 2023?;..as a reader decide🙏🏻

3- *DR* . *NASIR* *IDRIS* ( Kauran Gwandu)

1- EXPOSURE: A PhD holder, professional teacher, Union leader and activist is no doubt full of exposure to preside over the affairs of Kebbi State.

ii- REFERENCE POINT (RP):

1- Good education and family background

2- Philanthropics activities

3- Any other achievements.

TOTAL RP: 3-Points

iii- RESOURCES: As a salarians I am skeptical to his financial strength.

iv- POLITICAL BASE: Kauran Gwandu has no known Political base or structure, he is hoping on Gov. Bagudu's camp and the pointer from camp are pointing at different direction.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: With no viable Political base, how can Kaura make it to Kebbi Govt House in 2023?; as a reader decide🙏🏻

4- *ALH* . *BABALE UMAR* *YAURI* (Fagacin Yauri)

i- EXPOSURE: A masters degree holder from England, former perm.sec, former Head of Civil Service and currently Secretary to State Government, Fagacin Yauri need no more explanations to believe in his exposure to become a state governor.

ii- REFERENCE POINT:

1- Good family and education background

2- Philanthropics activities

3- Any other achievements.

TOTAL RP: 3-Points

iii- RESOURCES: Receiving alert uniterruptibly for more than 40 years plus other ' albarkan office' Fagaci is  resourceful.

iv- POLITICAL BASE: Fagaci is very strong in the 3 local governments under Yauri Emirate (Yauri/Shanga/Ngaski). But is vulnerable in other 19 LGs, his main hope is endorsement by his boss; Gov. Bagudu which is far from reality.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: No comments; the readers should decide🙏🏻

 *5- ALH. ABUBAKAR U* . *DUTSEN-MARI* (Sardaunan Bagudu)

i- EXPOSURE: Very handsome, very charismatic, very generous highly educated that best described the man; Abubakar Dutsen-mari, perm.sec, Kebbi State Ministry of Finance. No doubt about his exposure to become a governor.

ii- REFERENCE

 POINT:

1- Good family and education background

2- Philanthropics activities

3- Any other achievements.

TOTAL RP: 3-Points

iii-RESOURCES: Dutsen-mari is a kind of person who best described in Hausa as ' Aljihun ragga' he can empty his account & pocket to meet the needs of neddies and sleep pennyless.' Akwai dai rufin asiri'

iv- POLITICAL BASE: Another 'wahala'..; Sardaunan Bagudo is very loyalist of Gov. Bagudu, thus, his base, base on Gov. Bagudu's camp; with it's compass directing different direction.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: Fair financial strength couple with uncertain political structure, can Sardauna take over from his beloved boss in 2023?; as a reader decide🙏🏻

6- *MAL* . *BUHARI* *BELLO* 

i- EXPOSURE: Malam is a versatile legal practitioner, human rights activist, candid and candour politician. He is also a right hand man of President Buhari, currently Board Chairman, Federal Road Safety Commission. He possess all the needed exposure to become number one citizen of Kebbi State.

ii-REFERENCE POINT:

1- Good family and education background

2- Philanthropics activities

3-Any other achievements.

TOTAL RP: 3-Points

iii-RESOURCE:

No any technicality, Malam  lacks sufficient funds to fund Governorship expenses, but 'Allah ya rufa asiri'.

iv- POLITICAL BASE: He has no organized Political structure, he is just doing ' kame-kame'.. searching for lucky..

v- CHANCES IN 2023: Can 'kame-kame' in a highly competitive environment make one to become a governor?; as a reader decide🙏🏻.

7- *HON.DR* . *SHEHU* *M* . *KOKO ( Wamban Koko)* .

i-EXPOSURE: A vocal, vibrant and elequant parliamentarian. As retired senior law enforcement officer (Police) and now senior law making officer, has all it takes to become a Governor. He is currently, Chairman, Federal House of Representatives Committee on Air Force. He is representating Koko-Besse and Maiyama local governments.

ii- REFERENCE POINT:

1-Good family and education background

2- Facilitated many consitituency projects to his people

3- Facilitated the engagement of many youths to various Federal Government MDAs.

4- Philanthropics activities 

5- Any other achievements

TOTAL RP: 5-Points(HIghest so far) 

iii- RESOURCE: Effort to track down financial strength of Wamban koko has been exhausted but to no avail;' sahun keke ne,..ga Kuma barazana da hayaniya'... It is good strategy in politics.

iv- POLITICAL BASE: Hon. Dr. Wamban Koko has a firm Political base and structure but in the only two local governments he represent. He is orphan in the remaining 19 local governments. He is loyalist of both Governor Bagudu and Senator Aleiro, that's where the confusion arises.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: With unsettled confusion as regards to Political base, can Wamban Koko presided over in Kebbi Government House in 2023?, as a reader decide.🙏🏻

 *ABUBAAKAR* *CHIKA* *MALAMI* , *SAN* 

 'Anzo wajen' 😃,...I guess this is what may come to the mind of some readers:...:

i- EXPOSURE: Abubakar Chika Khadi Malami is an extra-ordinary learned gentleman and erudite jurist. He is the most creative and initiative Minister of Justice ever produced in Nigeria as he used his engeunity and transformed federal Ministry of Justice from consuming ministry to revenue generation ministry, through his fearless crusade against corruption and looted government assets. He went to America, England, Sweethland and other world nations, fought white lawyers before white judges in a white courts at white countries and defeated them hands down, hence the repatriation of billions of stolen US dollars back to Nigeria. Thus, any attempt or attempting attempt to doubt the exposure of Malami, SAN to the seat of Kebbi Governor is tantamount to blasphemy.

ii-REFERENCE POINT:

1- Good family background and sound education

2-Facilitate the appointment of MANY Kebbi State indigenes to head federal MDAs

3- Facilitated the engagement of MANY Kebbi youths into federal MDAs

4-Established many commercial activities and employed MANY youths

5- Facilitated the grant of soft loan worth N5million each to more than 500  Kebbi State indigenes.

6- Facilitated the execution of MANY Federal capital projects in Kebbi state

7-Assist many Kebbi indigenes to secure federal government contracts

8-Assist the whole Nigeria in repatriating stolen billions of dollars

10- Philanthropics activities.

( I will not give Malami merging error  i.e other achievements)

TOTAL RP: 10-Points(Overall so far)

iii-RESOURCE: Available as rain in the middle month of August.

iv-POLITICAL BASE:

1- As at today Minister control 60 to 70% of the APC structure in the state. While other aspirants adopted IPOB's strategy of ' SIT -AT -HOME' during APC Excos election, Malami tactically hijacked the process ( which is permissable in politics) and established a base.

2- He enjoys the power of incumbency at Federal level being him the darling of President Buhari, which is Politically a good base.

3- He enjoys the power of incumbency at state level for securing the backing of Gov. Bagudu and his camp's commanders

4- Malami must have read 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene, precisely LAW 7; "GET OTHERS TO DO THE WORK FOR YOU, BUT ALWAYS TAKE THE CREDIT". Four (4) strong NGOs :(1-Khadimiya for Justice and Developement Initiative, 2- Khadi Malami Foundation, 3- Aisha Abubakar Malami center for women Development,4-Al-Iman Charity Foundation ; run by Fatima Abubakar Malami) with superior purchasing power in their wallets and thousands of people in their data base, providing humanitarian services in nooks and crannies of Kebbi State.. and it is obvious that it is Malami who take the CREDITs of their works, which itself is a good Political base and structure.

5- Multitude of people he engaged at Federal level and his business empire are themselves structure that can work perfectly for him in 2023.

6- Malami's name is a household name not only in 21 local government in Kebbi state but all over the country; any media you turn on, you will hear that Malami do this.., Malami said this...;In politics popularity matters, Malami is very popular.

v- CHANCES IN 2023: With good Political base and structure; abundance resource in his possession couple with incumbency support from Federal and State level, who will doubt Malami's chances in 2023?; as a reader decide👏🏼

We should meet in next edition,.. before then happy 61st Nigeria Independence Anniversary🙏🏻

 *_AHMAD_* *_UMAR_* *_(KAMBA)_* is a Professional Journalist with specialization in Political Communication. He holds B.Sc in Mass Communication, a Diploma in Law, a Diploma in Accounting and a Diploma in Information Technology. He can be reached on;07038182929 ( text only), email: ahmadugamji@gmail.com.